PR Banking Industry Report Q4 2020
The PR Banking sector reached double digit Pre-Tax Return on Equity in 2020 (10.2%) despite the low interest rate environment, the impact of COVID-19 on business and consumer activity, and higher credit provisions.
< Back to Insights
Market and Business Analytics
Market and Business Analytics
PR Banking Industry Report Q3 2020
Banks remained profitable during the first nine months of 2020 despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, they experienced a moderate reduction in profitability (8.8% Pre-Tax ROE) vs 2018 and 2019 due to lower interest margin and fee income, and higher loan loss provision.
PR Banking Industry Report Q2 2020
Reduction in profitability in the first half of 2020 (7.0% Pre-Tax ROE) vs 2018 and 2019 due to lower interest margin and fee income, and higher loan loss provision, mostly driven by the Covid pandemic and its impact on the local and US economies. Despite the magnitude of the pandemic impact, no bank had negative net income, with Popular reaching the highest pre-tax ROA (0.97%), followed by Oriental (0.68%), Santander (0.58%), and FirstBank (0.40%).
PR Banking Industry Report Q1 2020
The impact of Covid-19 has been partially absorbed by local banks in their Q1 2020 results through a significant increase in loan loss provision. However, the reduction in fees and transactional income was small (last two weeks of March 2020) and will be felt mostly in Q2 2020 and in subsequent quarters depending on the pace of return to normal economic activity. In this Q1 2020 Banking Industry Report we present a brand new format where the user will be able to select particular periods of time and banks to review key metrics trends and make bank comparisons.
Unemployment Claims Reach Historic Highs following the COVID-19 Lockdown
The deep economic effects of Covid-19 are reflected in the unprecedented rise of unemployment claims around the world. In Puerto Rico, cumulative unemployment claims in the five weeks following the lockdown reached 200,419, three times the total claims during 2019. This number is in line with the US when measured in relation to the labor force. Covid-19 is also impacting the large informal economy of the Island, which is not eligible for unemployment insurance. On the other side, Puerto Rico may be seen as a safe place to do business given the successful containment of the virus so far, and as an ideal location from where to work remotely in the future.
Compare mobility trends and positive cases in Puerto Rico and other Countries/States
Mobility restriction measures have the objective of reducing the contagion of Covid-19. The V2A Covid-19 Mobility Dashboard compares mobility reductions/increases with the spread of Covid-19 in all States of the US and more than 100 countries including Puerto Rico. Several Countries/States can be selected to compare mobility in various sectors/areas (Retail and Recreation, Grocery and Pharmacy, Parks, Residential, Workplace, Transit Stations) and the evolution of positives per 100k population on a daily basis.
Sectors and workers most vulnerable to the effects of Covid-19 in Puerto Rico
The Covid-19 will have a large impact on our economy. Estimates from local economists point to a GDP drop between 2.6% and 5.2% in FY 2020 ($2.5B to $5B). However, this confinement period will not affect all businesses and employees in Puerto Rico equally. In this information "capsule" we will identify the employee groups most vulnerable to the effects of Covid-19 amongst the main sectors of our economy
PR Banking Industry Report Q4 2019
The local banking industry has gone through a profound and long-lasting consolidation process since 2010, with only three remaining banks surviving, Popular, FirstBank, and Oriental. With this consolidation came a steep decline in assets, deposits, and loans. From 2009 to 2016, total banking assets decreased by 38% or $34.9 billion, deposits by 24% or $14.4 billion, and loan portfolios by 38% or $23.5 billion. However, 2016 seems to be a turning point in the financial condition of local banks with assets increasing by 21%, deposits by 33%, and loans by 8% during the 2016-2019 period. The banks that have survived the latest wave of consolidations exhibited a strong financial performance in 2019, posting a consolidated Pre-Tax ROE of 13.7%. Their productivity, credit quality, and capital position in 2019 were solid and moving in the right direction, posting a cost-to-income ratio of 57.9%, a nonperforming loans ratio of 5.0%, and a Tier 1 Risk-Based Capital Ratio of 21.0%. Looking into the rest of 2020, the banking sector will likely benefit greatly from the imminent inflow of $8.285 billion in Community Development Block Grant Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) funds which have been made available by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), after months of delay. Additionally, new Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) regulations will likely have material operational implications as well as financial ones.
Are local banks penalized for operating in Puerto Rico?
The economic uncertainty that Puerto Rico has experienced in recent years has had a negative effect on the market value of banks that have their main operations located in the Island. However, the solid performance of local banks in terms of profitability and capital adequacy has translated into important increases in market capitalization, eliminating or significantly reducing their market risk premium.